April 6, 2010
PROJECTED TOP 10 FOR NEXT YEAR
1. Michigan State
2. Duke
3. Kansas
4. Villanova
5. Butler
6. Kansas State
7. Baylor
8. West Virginia
9. Georgetown
10. Penn State
Now, I hope Penn State got your attention. This isn't an actual prediction. First and formost, it is WAY TOO EARLY to be deciding favorites for next year's national championship, but we can't get around it. We're sports fans, it's what we do. Before anyone can honestly start making predictions, a lot of things have to be cleared up. (One of which recruiting, which isn't over)
NUMBER 1...Who's coaching who?
The most important thing to gage a team's success is who's leading the march. The way things look right now, no big programs are going to be shuffeling around coaching staffs this year. Coach K doesn't appear to be interested in leaving Durham. Coach Cal and Bill Self seem to be comfortable where they are. Not even Ole Roy could cry his way out of North Carolina this year.
SO THE REAL NUMBER 1...Who's returning?
As expected Kansas C Cole Aldrich has declared for the draft, as expected, but not many more big names have made a decision yet. It's a given John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson, and everyone else who plays basketball at Kentucky is gone. Evan Turner looks to be cashing in on a payday and Derrick Favors is likely to follow suit as well. How about somethings we don't know.
Duke....
Even if they do return Singler, Smith, and Thomas, which is probably more likely than not, I wouldn't put money on these guys repeating. Case and point:
2002...Duke lost one guy from their 2001 national championship (his name did happen to be Shane Battier) and returned Jay (at the time Jason) Williams, Chris Duhon, Michael Dunleavy Jr. and Carlos Boozer. That team should have been a lock right? Well, no one informed the first year Bobby Knightless 4 seeded Indiana Hoosiers. Those guys were a SOLID group. I wouldn't even mention Singler and company in the same sentence as Williams, Dunleavy, and Boozer. Several things happened this year for Duke to be able to win the championship. First, they were lucky to play in a waterdowned ACC that didn't provide much competition and pushed Duke to a one seed. Second, the NCAA tournament committee decided it was a good idea to eat some "fun" brownies and after doing so thought it would be really funny to put Duke in the easiest region anyone has seen in years. Third, Fourth, and Fifth: KU, Syracuse, and Kentucky were all upset. Losing Scheyer and not drawing that same kind of luck, will undoubtedly stop Duke from repeating.
I must say though, that Duke is a program that is deserving of a National Championship. I still don't think we'll truly know who the best team in the country was this year (KU or Kentucky), but Duke is a program that does it the right way and you can't knock integrity.
Michigan State...
It wouldn't be a bad idea to put some money on these guys from looking where we are today. They return virtually everyone, including their best player. Tom Izzo is 6 for 12 in reaching the final four in the last 12 years and here's a team that's been to the last 2. Lucas's scenerio could be that of Brandon Rush 3 years ago....OR....is this team going to be like Ben Howland's UCLA team that reached it's 3rd straight Final Four only to be blown away the moment they got there? Whatever that story may become. Michigan State does have to be on everyone's 52 weeks too early Final Four list.
Kentucky...
Who cares? It's only a matter of time before Calipari goes to the NBA after he get's his third consecutive school knee deep in NCAA violations. Sure Kentucky is probably going to have another stellar recruiting class, but what are they going to have to go with it? If they're lucky Bledsoe and/or Orton return, but I wouldn't hold my breath. There isn't an incoming freshman at Wall or Cousin's caliber. The Wildcats that "Refuse to Lose" might have to "Come up with an even less clever chant/slogan that reflects our intelligence and incorporates Kentucky basketball pride and how even though we're losing more these days it's still all good because everyone else is a hater and wishes they had our basketball history, because we're Kentucky and we can hold onto the past like that!" UK should be OK next year, probably Top 20, maybe even Top 10 (for a little bit anyone). I wouldn't expect anything special from Coach Cal's team next year, with the exception of a possible ban on post season play.
Butler...
If the Bulldog's do return Hayward next year, they'll be in the Top 10 most of the year. Something though tells me that Butler might pull a Davidson and not put together two great seasons. To Butler's credit, Davidson lost everyone BUT Stephen Curry, where as Butler only looks to lose one guy.
Kansas State...
The Wildcats return Jacob Pullen, the right place all the time guy, that really led this team beyond expectations. Guys like Samuels, Sutton, and Judge having another offseason to work on their game and mature physically should really help this team. I would even venture to say you're looking at next year's favorites for the Big 12 and preseason Top 5......IF......it weren't for two things. Losing Denni Clemente is going to hurt Frank Martin's club a lot. In my opinion it could even be as devestating to this team as Duke losing Scheyer.....AND TWO......
Kansas...
Sure KU loses All-Americans Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich, they may even lose Xavier Henry, but did anyone watch these guys? It was just as much fun as it was agrivating. You could see the talent oozing from this team this year, but they never really seemed to mesh it all together. Collins turned the ball over so much at times it looked as if he was shedding points (I in no way believe that was happening). Just as great as he'd appear one moment, the next it could be the worst play you've ever seen a point guard play. He was essentially Brett Favre at PG, just maybe less consistent. Xavier Henry never really seemed to help this team. He did score in the 30's....when it didn't matter. I don't know if it was because the team always deferred to Collins, but there were moments when you just wanted to shake Henry because you know this guy could score whereever and whenever he wanted to, but he just...didn't. It would be best for him to stay a year and work on asserting himself as the GUY. Losing Aldrich is going to hurt, defensively. Aside from the first game of the year, it looked like KU didn't want Aldrich to have the ball. Next year you have the Morris twins returning (the two most consistant players), Tyshawn Taylor, Brady Morningstar, Tyrell Reed, and then the improved/matured Elijah Johnson and Thomas Robinson. But it's the two wild cards that strike the most interest for me. KU redshirted SG Travis Releford and SF Mario Little. Self expects Releford to be 1,000 point scorer and Little, although injured last year, showed flashes of brilliance. This team will be more athletic and move up and down the court faster than this year. This is definitely a gamble prediction, but I think this team doesn't miss a beat and with no asserted STARS, I see a lot of similarities between the potential of this KU team and the 2008 Jayhawks.
But who know's.....we still have 364 days to find out who's the best team in the country.